Learn public debt forecasting with the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to analyze debt trends and understand change drivers
Learn public debt forecasting with the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to analyze debt trends and understand change drivers
This comprehensive course equips participants with essential skills in projecting and analyzing public debt dynamics. Through hands-on training with the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT), learners master techniques for forecasting debt evolution, understanding key drivers of change, and computing fiscal adjustment paths. The course covers fundamental concepts in public debt dynamics, practical applications using the DDT, and methods for generating projections under various scenarios. Participants learn to create baseline and alternative scenario projections, develop fan charts for uncertainty analysis, and calculate necessary fiscal adjustments to meet specific debt targets. This practical approach combines theoretical understanding with real-world applications, making it valuable for professionals involved in public finance and economic policy.
Instructors:
English
English
What you'll learn
Understand and apply key concepts for projecting public debt over time
Master practical calculations for accurate debt projections
Analyze and identify primary factors affecting debt-to-GDP ratio changes
Develop strategic fiscal paths to achieve specific debt targets
Create comprehensive debt projections including alternative scenarios and fan charts
Skills you'll gain
This course includes:
PreRecorded video
Graded assignments, exams
Access on Mobile, Tablet, Desktop
Limited Access access
Shareable certificate
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Module Description
This course provides a thorough understanding of public debt dynamics and their practical application through the Public Debt Dynamics Tool. Participants learn to project debt evolution, analyze key drivers of change, and develop fiscal adjustment strategies. The curriculum covers fundamental concepts of debt projection, practical calculations, identification of debt ratio changes, and methods for achieving targeted debt levels. Special attention is given to scenario analysis and fan chart creation for understanding uncertainty in debt projections.
Fee Structure
Payment options
Financial Aid
Instructor

4 Courses
Distinguished Economist Specializing in Sovereign Debt and Fiscal Policy
Leonardo Martinez is a senior economist at the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, bringing extensive expertise in financial programming, fiscal policy, and sovereign debt management. An Argentine national, Martinez holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rochester and previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. His research portfolio spans critical areas including sovereign risk, debt management, fiscal rules, and international reserves. At the IMF, Martinez has contributed to various departments, including the Macrofinancial Division of the Research Department and missions with the Western Hemisphere and Fiscal Affairs departments. His work has been published in top-tier economic journals such as the American Economic Review and Journal of Political Economy. Martinez's recent contributions include developing the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to assist countries with debt projections and analysis. He also co-authored influential papers on fiscal rules and sovereign default risk, demonstrating the benefits of spread-based fiscal rules for heterogeneous economies. As a key figure in the IMF's capacity development efforts, Martinez combines academic rigor with practical policy implementation, particularly in emerging and developing economies.
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