Learn public debt forecasting with the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to analyze debt trends and understand change drivers
Learn public debt forecasting with the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to analyze debt trends and understand change drivers
This comprehensive course equips participants with essential skills in projecting and analyzing public debt dynamics. Through hands-on training with the Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT), learners master techniques for forecasting debt evolution, understanding key drivers of change, and computing fiscal adjustment paths. The course covers fundamental concepts in public debt dynamics, practical applications using the DDT, and methods for generating projections under various scenarios. Participants learn to create baseline and alternative scenario projections, develop fan charts for uncertainty analysis, and calculate necessary fiscal adjustments to meet specific debt targets. This practical approach combines theoretical understanding with real-world applications, making it valuable for professionals involved in public finance and economic policy.
Instructors:
English
English
What you'll learn
Understand and apply key concepts for projecting public debt over time
Master practical calculations for accurate debt projections
Analyze and identify primary factors affecting debt-to-GDP ratio changes
Develop strategic fiscal paths to achieve specific debt targets
Create comprehensive debt projections including alternative scenarios and fan charts
Skills you'll gain
This course includes:
PreRecorded video
Graded assignments, exams
Access on Mobile, Tablet, Desktop
Limited Access access
Shareable certificate
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Module Description
This course provides a thorough understanding of public debt dynamics and their practical application through the Public Debt Dynamics Tool. Participants learn to project debt evolution, analyze key drivers of change, and develop fiscal adjustment strategies. The curriculum covers fundamental concepts of debt projection, practical calculations, identification of debt ratio changes, and methods for achieving targeted debt levels. Special attention is given to scenario analysis and fan chart creation for understanding uncertainty in debt projections.
Fee Structure
Instructor

1 Course
Distinguished Sovereign Debt Expert and International Finance Scholar
Leonardo Martinez serves as Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund's Institute for Capacity Development, where he leads the Public Debt Dynamics Tool technical assistance practice and teaches courses on financial programming and policy analysis. After earning his PhD in Economics from the University of Rochester under advisor Per Krusell and initial studies at Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, he has built an extraordinary career spanning central banking and international financial institutions. His academic impact is evidenced through publications in prestigious journals including the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, and Journal of International Economics, with research focusing on sovereign debt, fiscal rules, and international reserves. His professional journey includes significant roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2004-2009) and various IMF departments, including the Research Department's Macro-Financial Division and missions with Western Hemisphere and Fiscal Affairs departments. As lead developer of public debt online courses and technical assistance programs, he continues to shape understanding of sovereign risk and debt management while maintaining an active research agenda in political economics and mortgage markets. His expertise extends to teaching diverse courses including Fiscal Sustainability, Macroeconomic Diagnostics, and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis, reflecting his commitment to building capacity in fiscal and monetary policy implementation.
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