Analyzing Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty

Paolo Dudine is a senior economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), specializing in fiscal rules, macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, and country-specific fiscal analysis. His current role involves serving as the fiscal economist for Argentina and Vietnam. Dudine's career at the IMF has been diverse, including a five-year stint at the Institute for Capacity Development, where he taught courses to country officials on Financial Programming and Policies, macroeconomic forecasting, and fiscal analysis. His earlier work at the IMF focused on external sector issues of low-income developing countries. Dudine's research contributions include co-authoring influential papers on tax buoyancy and its role in fiscal sustainability. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and is currently on leave from the IMF. As a course author, Dudine has developed the "Public Debt Dynamics under Uncertainty" course for the IMF, which provides an overview of assessing public debt dynamics in uncertain economic environments. This course, offered through the IMF's online learning platform, equips participants with skills to produce and interpret fan charts for debt projections and understand concepts like maximum debt limits and safe debt levels.

Leonardo Martinez is a senior economist at the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, bringing extensive expertise in financial programming, fiscal policy, and sovereign debt management. An Argentine national, Martinez holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rochester and previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. His research portfolio spans critical areas including sovereign risk, debt management, fiscal rules, and international reserves. At the IMF, Martinez has contributed to various departments, including the Macrofinancial Division of the Research Department and missions with the Western Hemisphere and Fiscal Affairs departments. His work has been published in top-tier economic journals such as the American Economic Review and Journal of Political Economy. Martinez's recent contributions include developing the Public Debt Dynamics Tool to assist countries with debt projections and analysis. He also co-authored influential papers on fiscal rules and sovereign default risk, demonstrating the benefits of spread-based fiscal rules for heterogeneous economies. As a key figure in the IMF's capacity development efforts, Martinez combines academic rigor with practical policy implementation, particularly in emerging and developing economies.